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Welsh TB figures show decline

THE latest bovine TB statistics show a reduction in the number of cattle slaughtered in Wales in 2010 - but there will be no let-up in the Welsh Assembly Government's eradication programme [Farmers Guardian  - 31 Jan 2011]

Articles in Farmers Weekly and Farmers Guardian (with feedback) today:

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FARMERS WEEKLY
TB cases show sharp decline in Wales
31 January 2011| Debbie James

The number of cattle infected with bovine TB has fallen dramatically in Wales, with nearly a third fewer cattle slaughtered last year.

Figures released by the Welsh Assembly Government reveal that between January and October 2010, 6587 cattle were slaughtered in Wales because of bovine TB, compared with 9146 during the same period in 2009. This represents a 28% decrease. There were similar trends in 2004 and 2006.

Strict cattle movement controls and more frequent herd testing were put in place in 2008.

Although the latest reduction in TB cases has been welcomed by rural affairs minister Elin Jones, she pledges that there will be no let-up in Wales' TB Eradication Programme. As part of this, a pilot cull of badgers could get under way in west Wales later this year.

"While any reduction in the TB statistics is welcome, it would be premature to suggest a turning point has been reached in Wales, based on the available data, particularly whilst the GB trend is very similar," said the minister.

She warns that statistics should be interpreted with care and that they need to be analysed over time to observe a trend. "TB is a long-term epidemic and historically the trend has been upwards. We have seen short-term falls before - for example in 2004 and 2006," she said.

She admits that it is too early to give credit to measures that have been in place since 2008 including tougher cattle controls, increased testing and a zero tolerance approach to farmers who fail to comply with regulations. "We anticipate these measures having a positive impact on the levels of bovine TB. However, we are clear that we will not eradicate this disease while there is a reservoir of infection present in TB endemic areas," said Ms Jones. "This is why we are continuing to pursue a comprehensive package of measures."

During the first 10 months of 2010, just under 1.6m cattle were tested, approximately 3% more than for the same period in 2009.

Approximately 12% of cattle herds were under restriction at some point during that period, 2% lower than in 2009. The reduction in new incidents in 2010 was 14%.

The statistics are likely to be used by campaigners opposed to the proposed badger cull in west Wales to argue that cattle controls hold the key to fighting bovine TB.

The consultation period closed in January and the assembly government is now considering the responses as well as examining other evidence, including cattle and epidemiological data specific to the Intensive Action Area.

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FARMERS GUARDIAN
Welsh TB figures show decline
31 January 2011 | Barry Alston

THE latest bovine TB statistics show a reduction in the number of cattle slaughtered in Wales in 2010 ─ but there will be no let-up in the Welsh Assembly Government’s eradication programme.

The figures show that, between January and October 2010, 6,587 cattle were slaughtered in Wales because of bovine TB which compares with 9,146 during the same period in 2009.

“While any reduction in the TB statistics is welcome, it would be premature to suggest a turning point has been reached in Wales, based on the available data, particularly while the GB trend is very similar,” says Rural Affairs Minister, Elin Jones.

“Statistics must be used and interpreted with care and the TB data needs to be analysed over time to observe a trend.

“TB is a long-term epidemic and historically the trend has been upwards. We have seen short-term falls before – for example in 2004 and 2006.

“But as much as we would like to take credit for the recent decrease observed in the Welsh TB statistics, it is far too early to say what difference the stricter cattle controls, increased testing and our zero tolerance approach to not complying with regulations are making.

“We anticipate these measures having a positive impact on the levels of bovine TB, however, we are clear that we will not eradicate this disease while there is a reservoir of infection present in TB endemic areas.

“This is why we are continuing to pursue a comprehensive package of measures.”

She said that since the start of the eradication programme in 2008, the Assembly Government had adopted a comprehensive approach to tackle bovine TB in Wales.

A significant part of the programme was being aimed at dealing with the problem of cattle spreading the disease, including increased control and surveillance.

“Consultation responses on the badger control strategy are now being considered in addition to all other evidence, including cattle and epidemiological data that is specific to the Intensive Action Area, before any further decisions are made,” added the Minister.

The statistics show that for the first 10 months of 2010:

WAG tested just under 1.6 million cattle, which is approximately 3 per cent more than for the same period in 2009, the actual figures being 1,562,650 compared with 1,518,338.

Approximately 12 per cent of cattle herds had been under restriction at some point during the period due to a TB incident which is 2 per cent points lower than for the same period in 2009.

6,587 cattle were slaughtered, which is 28 per cent less than for the same period in 2009.

The reduction in new incidents in 2010 is put at 14 per cent compared to 2009.

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Readers' comments (3)

clifben | 31 January 2011 12:13 pm
If the proposed badger extermination had been allowed to go on over this period as would have been the case were it not for the "cull" having been cancelled, I am sure that we would have had loud voices hailing these figures as proof that the killing of badgers was having the desired effect.

The fact is that the proposed "Cull" was/is unscientific with no checks and balances or controls to compare results.

Vaccination of cattle would make all this expensive and stressful situation unnecessary

 

the peasant | 31 January 2011 12:31 pm

There is no distinction made between cattle tested at regular annual tests, and at 60 day retests, so we only know that the number of tests has risen, not that the number of cattle tested has risen. We don't know if the number of herds has changed between 2009 and 2010, so we cannot judge the significance of the 14% drop in new incidents.

The figures are interesting - yes, conclusive - never.

 

Anonymous | 31 January 2011 1:11 pm

Elin Jones says TB statistics must be interpreted with care and TB data needs to be analysed over time to observe a trend. Absolutely right. So why is she refusing to countenance a badger cull with the appropriate checks in place which will allow her to do just that? Whatever happens after culling starts--if it does--she simply won't have a clue whether badger culling has helped matters or made them worse. But a word of warning to farmers who believe the pro-cull propaganda pumped out by the farming unions: science tells us that a) relatively localised culling will increase bTB levels in cattle for several years and b) the badgers which remain after culling will have a higher prevalence of disease than before culling started. No doubt that's a direct result of the stress caused when stable social groups are destroyed and the perturbation effect begins. History is against her when she claims bTB won't be controlled without culling badgers. The much bigger postwar epidemic was almost eliminated without any badgers being killed. They are not the real problem. Time and time again farmers are buying in diseased cattle which have passed the ineffective skin test, and time and time again they are exposing clean herds to disease at markets, shows, and at single fence boundaries.

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