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Liberal split

LIBERAL ENGLAND
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Liberal Democrats to split on badger cull when we should oppose it

I am disappointed by the government's decision to go ahead with a cull of badgers in an attempt to combat bovine TB. I am even more disappointed of the Liberal Democrat MPs being split on the issue in an attempt to placate their individual voters.

 

Andrew George, to his credit, has come out against the plans, but I suspect in general the overall picture will be as painted by ePolitix.com:

Rural Lib Dems MPs like Tim Farron support a cull, while urban Lib Dems such as Chris Huhne and Greg Mulholland will be opposed.

Desmond Carrington, writing on the Guardian Environment Blog, sets out some of the science that makes the case for a cull unconvincing Ieven if he can't spell "perturbation"):

But the coalition government is on stickier ground when it comes to the science: it pledged a "science-led" approach. First, even after the pilot studies of free shooting, there will still be no scientific evidence that such culling reduces TB, given that the "peturbation" effects will not be measured.

 

Peturbation is the disruption by culling of badgers' social groups which is known to lead to higher TB rates in surrounding areas. Spelman's chief scientific adviser, Professor Bob Watson, acknowledged this, telling me it was an "expert judgement" that the peturbation effects would be no worse than with other killing methods. That's opinion not science, in my view. And don't forget that all of the authors of the 10-year trial instigated by Lord John Krebs think culling is an ineffective method of tackling TB.

The other science problem is that Spelman had already all but killed plan B: vaccination. She said this was the solution everyone wanted, but had already cancelled five of the six vaccination trials set up by the previous government. The last government said an oral vaccine for badgers would be available by 2015: this government says they now don't know when - or even if - one will be ready. I find that hard to swallow when a paper has been published showing success in Ireland.

There are resources for fighting the cull on the RSPCA and Badger Trust sites.

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EPOLITIX
Spelman faces badger cull battle
By Sam Macrory - 19th July 2011

A set piece statement in the House of Commons is hard to file in the 'burying bad news' category, but it looks as thought the government is using the cover of rather more dramatic events at Westminster to confirm its endorsement of a highly controversial measure.

With the select committee appearance of Rupert Murdoch distracting politicians and the press, environment secretary Caroline Spelman has just confirmed the government's endorsement of a cull of Britain's badger population in a bid to prevent the spread of bovine TB.

The decision ends 15 years of dispute between farmers – the National Farmers Union have long argued for a cull – and animal rights organisation, for while Badgers carry bovine TB, they are protected by Parliamentary statute. 

At the same time, the effectiveness of a cull has been disputed by such figures as Sir David Attenborough and Lord Krebs, the badger and bovine TB expert scientist.

Ploughing scarce public resources – an effective cull would need to be carried out over minimum four years and over anarea of 150 sqkm – is hardly likely to be a popular measure, but having signed off vast budget cuts the option of pursuing more costly and slower alternatives, such as a vaccine, does not appear to have been so attractive to Spelman or her ministerial colleagues Jim Paice, Richard Benyon, and Lord Henley, landowners all. 

Defra insiders reporting an agonising decision-making process over the decision to push ahead with the cull, but Spelman now finds herself in the position of having to explain why the scientists and campaigners are wrong and she is right, despite a lack of new evidence.

It's not an easy fight, nor a popular one.

A 2006 consultation saw 95 per cent of respondents opposed to a cull, but this is awkward territory is not entirely unfamiliar for Spelman. 

The dramatic u-turn over the proposed sale of Britain's forests provided the first significant win of Ed Miliband's Labour leadership, with Spelman's isolated climbdown seeing the odds for her Cabinet survival slashed overnight. And just a few weeks ago her department found itself on the wrong side of a political row over the use of circus animals.

Sensing another possible win, Labour has continued the opposition to the cull which they set out in government, with Mary Creagh, the shadow environment secretary, predicting another disaster for Defra.

So far 81 MPs have signed an EDM opposing the cull, and while Peter Bottomley is the sole Conservative on the list, 11 backbench Liberal Democrats have added their name and their message is likely to divide their coalition colleagues. Rural Lib Dems MPs like Tim Farron support a cull, while urban Lib Dems such as Chris Huhne and Greg Mulholland will be opposed. 

And with the ever-powerful animal welfare lobby in operation, it is easy to see the anti-cullers gathering momentum and support across the House. 

Culling badgers will clearly win support in strongly Tory rural constituencies, but in urban centres the case of the farmers is likely to be drowned our by animal rights activists, whose influence in the countryside should not be underestimated – badgers may not possess the universal lure of the forests, but as every accompanying picture to a newspaper article demonstrates, they have a knack of looking both innocent and vulnerable. MPs report that the issue is dominating their constituency postbags already. Should campaigners 38 Degrees whip up a similar operation to the one they ran over the forests, then expect real party division and pressure on both Spelman and the prime minister.

However, having given the farmers enough encouragement that they would proceed with a cull, the government was firmly in the damned-if-you-do-or-don't camp. So what next? One Conservative backbencher told me that: "This will probably be like the forests all over again. They'll march us up to the top of the hill and then..."

And then what? A Defra source suggests that if Caroline Spelman is left to fight an impossible fight then the ground would be laid for David Cameron to step in and clean up the mess, once again shifting blame away from Number 10 and onto his environment secretary. Ruthless? Yes, but he's shown that he's more than capable of doing that already. 

However, while one Defra u-turn looks unfortunate, three begins to look, well, worse than careless. Jim Paice was notably low key during the forests row, despite it falling in his remit; will he face the flak with Spelman this time?

The farmers may have the badgers in their sights, but once the repercussions of today's decisions are felt then the cull has the potential to claim a ministerial victim or two instead.

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